As the designated international delegates, high level representatives and media start flying in from all over the world to attend the G20 Leaders’ Summit in South Africa this coming weekend (Friday to Sunday the 21^st to 23^rd of November), we know that our beloved ‘Joburg’ is getting ready to impress, host and entertain.

But what about the weather? Is it going to ‘play nice’?

It seems like there might not be an entirely straight yes / no answer to that question. Our Vox Weather Meteorologists, Annette Botha and Michelle Cordier, tell us more.

The G20 Summits aim to bring world leaders together in one place to address pressing global challenges and encourage economic cooperation, through annual meetings of heads of state and government leaders.

We know that this year’s delegates and media will be based in Nasrec during the day when the work is being done, with Sandton being a key area for hotel accommodation – although it’s probably a safe guess to think that hotels all over Joburg are currently booked out!

South Africa has been preparing for this international gathering all year long, with Joburg very much in the spotlight as the city prepares to host one of the most significant global gatherings of 2025. Organisers are hoping for good weather to make logistics smoother and to show our guests a ‘sunny South Africa’ experience at its finest – so let’s see what the experts have to say about the forecast over this period.

Vox Weather Meteorologist Michelle du Plessis says: “From Thursday the 20^th of November through the G20 weekend, the weather over Johannesburg is expected to remain unsettled, with a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms rather than clear, dry conditions.”

Oh dear…?

She continues: “Current forecasts suggest isolated to scattered storms developing mainly during the afternoon and evening each day, often triggered by daytime heating and a moist, unstable air mass over the Highveld.

“These storms are likely to be of the ‘hit-and-miss’ variety, but where they do occur, they can produce brief, heavy downpours, gusty winds, and reduced visibility – exactly the kind of weather that can quickly slow traffic and complicate last-minute roadworks and logistics.”

Okay, so careful planning and eagle-eyed driving is required.

Michelle’s colleague Annette Botha adds: “Daytime temperatures are generally expected to be in the low- to mid-20s, which means it will feel warm and somewhat humid before storms break out. The good news is that there should still be useful dry windows each morning and between storms for preparations and movements around the city.”

Right, so there is some good news – a fairly typical Highveld weather pattern in store then.

Michelle confirms: “For planning purposes, it would be wise for organisers and road teams to factor in the possibility of short-lived but intense showers on most days from Thursday onward, particularly later in the day, rather than counting on the weather to ‘behave’ completely for the duration of the summit.”

And so the message is clear: the weather is following a fairly typical late spring / early summer pattern for this part of the world.

Annette adds: “As a quick aside, it’s interesting to note that, while these storms are typical of spring on the Highveld, they are nothing compared to the rainfall we saw last weekend on the 16^th of November, when close to 90 mm fell in parts of Gauteng.

“Still, due to sharp temperature changes in the atmosphere, these afternoon and evening storms remain capable of producing small hail, lightning, and quick downpours, and so the watchword should remain being cautious as well as prepared.”

As always, Vox Weather is here to keep people informed and help anyone in our beautiful country to plan ahead and be prepared.

And so welcome to South Africa, G20 Summit delegates and visitors! We hope you enjoy your stay with us and even consider making it ‘many happy returns’ in the future.

What to Expect This Coming Season in South Africa

South Africans are generally a summer-loving nation, and our country is famous for its sunshine – an average of 2,500 hours of sun every year. With spring behind us and summer holidays officially just a few weeks away, Vox Weather Meteorologist Michelle du Plessis tells us more about what to expect from the weather – including the all-important chances of rain.

‘Springing’ into Summer

October is the time of year when the jacarandas are in full bloom and Pretoria literally turns purple! In the Western Cape it’s harvest time, and farmers are generally grateful for the drier conditions which allow them to finish their harvests on time.

The season starts with the characteristic berg wind conditions, and history was made on the 23^rd of October when the South African Weather Service’s (SAWS) weather station in East London, which has been measuring for ten years, recorded its highest temperature yet for October at 41.4 degrees Celsius!

Throughout the month we saw spring showing its true nature. Several intense thunderstorms with hail were reported over large parts of the interior. By the beginning of November, Limpopo, Mpumalanga and the Free State had all experienced occasions where the hail was as large as golf balls!

Transitional seasons like spring are known for their extremely unstable atmosphere. When warm, moist air from the northeast clashes with cooler, drier air from the west, then you get the perfect recipe for thunderstorms – and sometimes even tornadoes. On the 9^th of October, for example, an EF0 tornado was confirmed near Germiston in Gauteng, with winds of more than 100 km/h being recorded (an EF0 tornado is the weakest category of tornado on the Enhanced Fujita (EF) scale, with wind speeds between 105 to about 140 km/h).

By the end of October the weather turns wet, with heavy rain over the central and north-eastern parts of the country. A farmer near Wesselsbron, Lourens, measured nearly 100 mm in just 24 hours, and in Frankfort there were reports of flooding.

The Percentage of Normal Rainfall for Spring

Looking back at where and how much rain has fallen during September and October, we see that, as expected, it was a drier start to spring for the summer rainfall regions, except for a few wetter spots in Gauteng and Limpopo where a few intense storms earlier in the month produced good rains.

Our concern remains in the Southern Cape, where the map of percentage of normal rain for a period of 180 days from the start of winter into spring shows below normal rain for the southern Cape. Although this region is a year-round rainfall region, it remains dry, with the dams’ levels STILL decreasing.

State of Climate

ENSO:
We are now officially in La Niña conditions, clearly visible in the blue shading that shows colder-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. This typically points to a wetter-than-normal summer for South Africa’s summer rainfall regions – so yes, more thunderstorms and rain are on the way!

SOI:

That said, this La Niña is expected to remain weak to moderate, and that is why we also have to look at other major climate drivers, such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which measures air-pressure differences over the Pacific Ocean, and has recently risen sharply into positive values – another clear sign that the atmosphere is supporting this La Niña pattern and helping to pull tropical moisture southwards.

IOD:

We also look at the sea surface temperatures over the Indian Ocean, with reference to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). This measures the difference in sea surface temperature between the western Indian Ocean (near East Africa) and the eastern Indian Ocean (near Indonesia/Australia).

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently in a strongly negative phase – one of the most notable in the modern period. Waters near East Africa are cooler than normal and waters near Indonesia are warmer than normal. This helps push more moisture towards southern Africa, especially early in summer.

With a weak to moderate La Niña now established and supporting signs from other climate drivers, it looks promising for more widespread summer rainfall over large parts of the country.
But what do the models say?

Seasonal Forecast: November, December, January

Both the University of Pretoria and the South African Weather Service (SAWS) indicate that the last month of spring and the first two months of summer are likely to bring above-normal rainfall over large parts of the summer rainfall regions.

They do not, however, agree on the expected rainfall in the Northern Cape, Karoo and southern Cape. According to SAWS, generally drier conditions are expected in that area, while the UP models indicate above-normal rain. Vox Weather therefore advises weather watchers not to rely too heavily on the long-term models for those regions, but rather keep a close eye on the short-term forecasts.

As far as temperatures are concerned, there is also not much agreement between the two forecasts. The only region where they do agree is over the south-western Cape, where warmer conditions are expected. This usually goes hand in hand with windy conditions and a high fire danger, which farmers and communities should please keep in mind.

Whether you’re in agriculture, planning a summer holiday, or simply trying to keep your garden alive: stay informed, plan ahead and enjoy the summer weather that still lies ahead – both rain and shine.

Remember that Vox Weather is always here to bring you forecasts and other information about the weather in our beautiful country!

We chat to Michelle du Plessis, our very own Vox Weather meteorologist, and find out more about what she loves both in and outside work.

Michelle regards meteorology as being a balance and blend of science and storytelling. And certainly it’s come a long way, from ancient civilisations observing celestial patterns or monitoring the movements of birds and animals, to the modern-day usage of advanced technology and complicated maths.

Michelle – who is one half of the acclaimed Vox Weather duo, together with colleague and mentor Annette Botha – shares details about her daily working life, as well as some of her challenges and aspirations.

We also find out more on how hard she has worked to follow her dream.

Inspiration During High School

Michelle’s future career as a meteorologist began in high school, where she loved Geography and was also good at Maths. She explains: “My Geography teacher, Mrs Esther Fourie, was simply amazing and truly inspirational. I became interested in pursuing Geography at the tertiary education level, but I wasn’t too sure initially of what was available to me in the field.”

Here she smiles: “I wasn’t that keen on looking at rocks, for instance! But I really liked the weather component of Geography. So I did some research and decided to study meteorology. Once at university, I found the course to be very scientific and also mathematical, and in fact more challenging than I’d expected, but always very enjoyable.”

Michelle studied for a BSc Meteorology at the University of Pretoria, which is currently the only university in South Africa to offer the course, and she then went on to complete her Honours degree, graduating Cum Laude and at the top of her class. It wasn’t always plain sailing though: financial and COVID-linked challenges were looming.

Grit and Determination

Having been granted a bursary during her undergraduate years, Michelle had to start paying for her studies in full during her final Honours year. “It was financially challenging,” she says, “but I managed to get through by juggling a couple of jobs while I was still studying. I found different work for myself, doing a bookkeeping job as well as some tutoring work. Fortunately, I do like both Maths AND children – if I hadn’t become a meteorologist I could easily have become a teacher!”

Another significant challenge came about because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Michelle explains: “I was doing my Honours degree during the COVID period, and it ultimately had a very negative impact on job opportunities in the broader meteorology arena. This was largely because most graduate meteorologists would traditionally be absorbed by the South African Weather Service (SAWS) after they had finished their studies.

“However, one of the main incomes for SAWS is the production of forecasts relating to the aviation industry, and obviously COVID caused global flights to be cut back severely. The end result was that, in the year after I’d finished my Honours degree, SAWS wasn’t able to hire in any of the meteorology graduates from my year, which was a serious blow for all of us at the time.”

However, Michelle is both determined and resourceful, and so to support herself, she continued with her previous bookkeeping and tutoring jobs for about another year or so – something which, she says, taught her continued resilience and perseverance, even while her dream job wasn’t immediately within reach.

“I definitely had some tough moments along the way,” she admits, “but I also learned that hard work and staying positive can eventually pay off. I don’t like dwelling too much on the past – I believe that everyone faces their own challenges.”

Her chance to finally work in her chosen field came when she was able to join Annette at Vox Weather from February 2023 as a Junior Meteorologist.

“It’s really fulfilling to be working today in the field that I studied for,” she says. “I’m so grateful for the opportunity to be working now as a meteorologist and gaining exposure to a truly interesting and satisfying working life.”

It’s also clear that her formative challenges have helped to shape her impressive work ethic.

A Day in the Life…

So what does a day in the life of a meteorologist look like?

Michelle says a typical week involves analysing weather models and trends, preparing the daily forecasts, and switching into content creation and filming to produce material across different platforms, from short TikTok clips to the main daily show that goes live at 18:00. In short, forecasting requires scientific modelling work, after which content must be created for different audiences and formats.

She explains: “Basically I forecast and present the weather, but that’s not all. We also do quite a lot of interviews with newspapers and radio stations. Then besides that, we additionally plan field trips, including for our ‘Beyond the Forecast’ episodes, where we go a bit deeper into how weather can impact on other experiences. So it’s a lot of science, and then quite a bit of fun as well!”

Her field work is an important and much‑loved part of the job, including snow chases, Namaqualand flower shoots, and even hot‑air balloon and paragliding experiences – all in the name of finding out more about the local weather and its effects.

Says Michelle: “So much of my field work has already become what you could call ‘bucket list’ types of experiences. Having grown up in Pretoria and then relocated to the Western Cape for Vox Weather, I hadn’t previously experienced snow until we went snow chasing for work last year, which was amazing and today is one of my favourite memories!”

And staying with the idea of ‘snow angels’, Michelle adds that she “likes to think of the Vox Weather meteorologists as being South Africa’s Weather Fairies…!”

It’s a fun thought, because fairies traditionally help to make good things happen, and Michelle and Annette together do just that, using modern technology for both the initial weather forecasting as well as sharing their information and analyses via the Internet.

When discussing the audience differences across various social media platforms, Michelle notes that TikTok attracts a younger audience, while Facebook often brings older and more seasoned followers.

“Geographically, Vox Weather’s biggest engagement comes from the major urban centres, including Gauteng, Cape Town, Durban, Port Elizabeth and Bloemfontein,” she outlines, “while the audience engagement can also vary by season and region. For example, people in Gauteng often react strongly to cold snaps and hail, while Western Cape viewers are more used to rain and winter patterns. In general though, it’s safe to say that engagement tends to spike during extreme or unusual weather events. Our Vox Weather community is overwhelmingly positive and appreciative, with only the odd negative comment that we don’t dwell on.”

Challenges and Resilience

Being in the public eye can be challenging,” Michelle confirms, “and there are obviously times when we get negative comments – we do sometimes get the forecast wrong! People can be quite harsh on us if we predicted rain that then didn’t happen, for example. My response then is to ask people to remember that the atmosphere overall is quite complex, and that a small change can make a big difference. We always say: ‘It’s just the forecast – it’s not a promise!”

She notes that another hallenge includes presenting in English, which isn’t her home language (Michelle comes from an Afrikaans upbringing originally), but she continues working on her linguistic skills.

To counteract these occasional work challenges, Michelle is grateful that the team at Vox Weather is friendly and supportive, with Annette being a kind and flexible mentor: “I’ve been allowed to work with a significant amount of creative and professional freedom while developing my own presentation style, wardrobe choices and the planning of shoots,” she says.

“I also have tremendous support from my husband, Renaldo, and I’m really enjoying married life – I’m finding it an absolute joy. I’m so lucky to be married to someone who supports me wholeheartedly – he’s my calm in the chaos! While I do miss some key family members and friends, moving to Cape Town together has opened up a meaningful new chapter for us.”

Into the future, Michelle would like to continue with her academic studies at some point by doing a master’s degree, possibly with a focus on changes to rainfall patterns under a warming climate. She’s also interested in growing further within Vox Weather and having her own future role in mentoring other meteorologists going forward.

“I’m very proud to be part of Vox Weather,” says Michelle. “We’ve built a brand that people trust, and we’ve worked really hard to get there. I also love the fact that every day is different, whether we’re forecasting and standing in front of the camera, or out in the field.

“I’m very grateful for the job I have, and I love every day of it. And just know, when you see me on the screen having fun during a snow chase, that it probably took three weather models, two coffees and one very determined fellow meteorologist to get me there!” she concludes.

Did you ever notice how the increased winds in August in South Africa’s interior are closely linked to the seasonal transition from winter to spring?

Vox Weather Meteorologist Michelle du Plessis tells us more.

During winter, much of South Africa is dominated by a stable high-pressure system over the interior. By late winter, this high-pressure system begins shifting as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) also moves further south, while cold fronts from the southwest continue to pass across the country.

The interaction between these different air masses, namely colder, denser air from the west and warmer, lighter air building over the interior, creates a tighter pressure gradient. A tighter pressure gradient causes air to move faster, which is experienced as stronger winds.

At this time of year, vegetation and soils are generally at their driest after months of limited rainfall. This allows dust and sand to be lifted more easily by the wind, and also creates ideal fuel for fires. The combination of dry vegetation, low humidity and strong winds makes it far easier for flames to spread rapidly and become uncontrollable.

These conditions are a key reason why August is one of the worst times for any open burning, as even a small spark can quickly escalate into a runaway wildfire.

When Will the Rains Come?

The ‘August winds’ is generally a late‑winter feature that usually builds from late July, peaks through August, and fades during early to mid‑September. Mechanistically, the windiness is driven because of strengthening pressure gradients between lingering cold fronts to the southwest and a warming interior.

In most years, the interior’s first spring showers arrive mid to late September, but they’re usually light and isolated. The true start of the rainy season, with consistent, useful rainfall, tends to occur from October into early November.

Recent research confirms a shift toward a later onset of rain, especially in Gauteng and surrounding areas. What was once expected in September now often only establishes in October or even November.

This trend is linked to climate change and ENSO cycles, with El Niño years delaying rain and La Niña favouring earlier onset.

The bottom line is that the spring rains are coming, but they’re running later than they used to.

As the frontal influence relax and low‑level moisture flux from the northeast strengthens, winds generally ease from their late‑winter peaks and thunderstorm days begin to appear.

A practical rule of thumb is a one to four week overlap or transition: the gusty late‑winter pattern tapers off in early to mid-September; the first weak convective events pop up mid‑ to late September; and finally more reliable rainfall usually arrives in October.

Are We Seeing a Change in the Beginning of the Seasonal Spring Rains?

The short answer – in Michelle’s opinion – is yes.

She believes that there has been a change in the beginning of the seasonal spring rains in South Africa in recent times.

It matters because:

Rainy seasons are arriving later, shortening the wet window: A study across southern Africa confirms that the wet season is starting later, which also means shorter rainy periods and lower overall rainfall in many regions.
Climate change is a major culprit: Longer-term climate projections, especially under high emissions scenarios, suggest that shifts in global rainfall timing are already underway. In southern Africa, these shifts are tied to delayed wet-season starts, likely influenced by warming trends and changes in atmospheric circulation.

The Role and Effects of Fire

In the Western Cape, fire is essential for fynbos regeneration. In the interior grasslands and savannas, fire also plays an important ecological role, but timing and intensity matter.

Well-timed, cooler burns (usually done controlled, under calm, moist conditions) help remove old grass, stimulate new growth, and control bush encroachment.

However, August fires driven by strong winds are often too hot and fast, making them more destructive than beneficial. These fires can damage soil, kill recovering vegetation, and destroy grazing land.

So while fire is natural and even necessary in some ecosystems, the August fire season in the interior is more risky than helpful, especially when fires are uncontrolled and fuelled by dry, windy weather.

What Does This Mean on the Ground?

Farmers, planners and residents relying on spring rains can no longer count on September showery starts. In practice, October is fast becoming the more dependable month for meaningful rainfall, especially across Gauteng and the interior.

The bottom line?

Yes, spring rains are shifting later in South Africa. Research confirms that it’s happening, and that climate changes are steering the trend.

Recent studies show that the later start to the rainy season is linked to a combination of climate change and natural climate patterns.
Climate change is shifting weather patterns globally, including when and how rain falls in South Africa. Warmer temperatures affect how long dry seasons last and delay the arrival of reliable rain.

El Niño and La Niña also play a role. El Niño years tend to bring later and weaker rains, while La Niña often brings earlier and wetter conditions. We are expecting a weak La Niña to develop by summer, which may result in above-normal rain in the summer over the summer rainfall regions.

This is a celestial event you won’t want to miss — and one of the best lunar eclipses visible from South Africa in years.

Stargazers around the country have been waiting impatiently for a stunning astronomical spectacle that’s taking place on the night of Sunday the 7^th of September 2025, when a rare total lunar eclipse, commonly called a Blood Moon, will be visible across the country. Grab your warm jackets (it can still be cold during September evenings) and get comfortable as the sky puts on an amazing show!

Vox Weather Meteorologist Michelle du Plessis tells us more about how lunar eclipses are formed, and the weather we can hope for on Sunday night.

What is a Lunar Eclipse?

A lunar eclipse happens when the Earth passes directly between the Sun and the Moon, casting its shadow onto the Moon. This only occurs during a full moon.

There are three types of lunar eclipses:

Penumbral Lunar Eclipse – the Moon passes through Earth’s faint outer shadow (the penumbra), causing only a slight dimming.
Partial Lunar Eclipse – part of the Moon passes through Earth’s dark central shadow (the umbra), and a section appears darkened.
Total Lunar Eclipse – the entire Moon moves into Earth’s umbra, turning a reddish colour — often called a ‘Blood Moon’.

During a total lunar eclipse, the Earth blocks direct sunlight from reaching the Moon. However, sunlight still filters through Earth’s atmosphere and bends (or refracts) around the planet.

Shorter blue wavelengths are scattered, and the longer red and orange wavelengths reach the Moon — causing it to glow red or copper.

It’s the same effect that gives us red sunrises and sunsets — except this time, you’re seeing it reflected back from the Moon!

This TikTok video from Michelle shows us more on how lunar eclipses take place – together with a quick weather overview for the country’s stargazing.

The 7 September 2025 eclipse is special because:

It will be a total lunar eclipse, with the entire Moon turning red.
It will last 82 minutes, making it one of the longest lunar eclipses of the decade.
It will be visible across South Africa.
No telescope is needed — you can see it with the naked eye if skies are clear.

South Africa Viewing Details and Weather Conditions

The table shows the key moments to look out for. The best time to watch is between 7:30 PM and 8:52 PM, when the Moon will be completely within Earth’s shadow and glowing red.

The weather conditions for 7 September across the country will be mostly favourable for viewing the total lunar eclipse on Sunday evening.

However, around the Southern Cape, including parts of the Garden Route and Overberg, we are expecting widespread cloud cover, which will most likely obscure the view of the eclipse.
In contrast, much of the interior, including the Free State, North West, Limpopo, and Gauteng, will experience partly cloudy skies with high to mid-level cloud, allowing for intermittent but generally good visibility of the eclipse.
Cape Town is also expected to have clear enough skies, especially earlier in the evening, making for a great viewing opportunity.
Coastal areas in KwaZulu-Natal and parts of the Eastern Cape may see some coastal cloud or mist, especially early evening, but breaks in the cloud are possible later on.

For the best view, try to find an open area away from city lights — ideally elevated, with an unobstructed view of the eastern horizon where the Moon will rise.

Tips for Watching and Photographing

Dress warmly — it’s still chilly at night in September.
Use a camera with manual exposure settings if possible.
For smartphone users: Tap to focus on the Moon and reduce brightness for better contrast.

Fun Facts

A lunar eclipse can only occur during a full moon.
Unlike a solar eclipse, lunar eclipses are safe to view with the naked eye.
The Moon doesn’t completely disappear — it turns red due to Rayleigh scattering in Earth’s atmosphere.

Why Is It Called a “Blood Moon”?

The term ‘Blood Moon’ comes from the deep red colour the Moon takes on during totality. Ancient cultures often saw it as an omen, but today we know it’s simply the effect of Earth’s atmosphere bending sunlight.

Mark your calendars and if skies are clear, look up and enjoy the show!

South Africa is one of the few countries in southern Africa that regularly has snow – in places – in winter.

Vox Weather Meteorologist Michelle du Plessis tells us more.

South Africa’s climatic diversity is largely due to its geographic position at the southernmost tip of Africa, where it’s influenced by both the warm Agulhas Current on the east coast and the cold Benguela Current on the west coast. Its varied topography – ranging from high plateaus to mountain ranges like the Drakensberg – creates conditions cold enough for snowfall in winter. Being the furthest south on the continent, South Africa is also directly affected by mid-latitude cyclones and cut-off low-pressure systems. When looking at our neighbouring countries, clear contrasts emerge in winter weather patterns.

(Image left courtesy Mantle Plumes; Image right courtesy Vox Weather)

Lesotho, though an independent country, is entirely landlocked within South Africa.

Its high elevation – most of the country lies above 1,800 metres – means it experiences regular snowfall in winter, particularly over the Maloti Mountains, much like surrounding high-lying areas of South Africa.

(Photo courtesy Snow Report SA / Marietjie Hayward)

Namibia and Botswana experience dry, sunny winters with cool nights and warm days, but their generally low elevation and arid conditions make snowfall virtually impossible.

In Namibia, bergwinds or “oosweer” often bring warm, dry weather and occasional sandstorms as strong north-easterly winds prevail after the passage of cold fronts. Although rare, light snowfall can occur in the far south of Namibia when a particularly strong cold front moves unusually far north.

Zimbabwe and Mozambique have subtropical to tropical climates. Their winters are dry and mild, with average temperatures rarely dropping low enough to produce frost, let alone snow.

Eswatini experiences slightly cooler conditions in winter, especially in its highland areas, but snowfall is extremely rare due to its lower elevation and more humid climate.

(Map image courtesy of BBC News)

These regional differences highlight how South Africa’s southern location, combined with its topographical range and oceanic influences, makes it uniquely positioned to experience a wide variety of winter weather, including rain and snow – conditions seldom seen in its neighbouring countries.

(Click here to find out how snow weather occurs.)

Forecaster warned that snow is possible in central SA and Gauteng this week. Here is the latest weather update.

Snow in Gauteng? Weather models are pointing to a rare wintry mix for the province this Thursday as a powerful cut-off low sweeps across South Africa, bringing freezing temperatures and the potential for snow, hail, or graupel.

While actual snow settling in Gauteng remains unlikely due to higher ground temperatures, forecasters warn that conditions may be cold and unstable enough to produce soft hail or snow-like precipitation.

GARDEN ROUTE | KAROO NEWS – While snowfall is likely to evade Gauteng, a strong cut-off low will develop over the western part of the country on Wednesday and slowly move eastwards, spreading cold and wet weather over central and later eastern parts of South Africa.

According to Vox Weather, models are indicating a mix of rain, snow, and graupel is likely over central South Africa (parts of Free State, Northern Cape, Eastern Cape, Lesotho).

What is happening to SA’s winters and is climate change playing a significant role? Vox Meteorologist Michelle du Plessis tells us more.

Data shows that winter temperatures across southern Africa have been steadily rising since the 1960s, with fewer days of frost and freezing conditions.

According to the NOAA, extreme cold events are now far less common – and when they do happen, they’re generally milder than in the past.

In the Western Cape, where winter rainfall is vital, climate models show that the rainy season is becoming shorter and more variable.

While some winters still bring strong cold fronts and good rainfall, others are marked by long dry spells.

The WMO warns that drought risks are increasing, especially in Mediterranean-type climates like the south-western Cape.

Interestingly, while total rainfall may decrease, when storms do occur, they may be more intense – bringing short bursts of heavy rain rather than steady soaking periods. This is because warmer air holds more moisture, which can lead to more powerful frontal systems when they develop.

Recent studies suggest that mid-latitude frontal systems – the cold fronts that bring winter rain – may grow stronger under climate change. However, this doesn’t mean we’ll get more of them. Instead, we may see fewer, but more intense, winter storms, followed by longer dry periods in between.

What this means for South Africa

In short, South African winters are becoming:

Warmer, with fewer frost days;
More variable, with rain falling in short, intense bursts; and
Less predictable, meaning long-range planning is harder.

Did you know that South Africa has Africa’s second longest mainland coastline – second only to Somalia?

And of course, as the southernmost country in Africa, with our coastline spanning two oceans, we see a vast amount of shipping all along our coastlines, both domestic as well as international – there are more than 30 000 ships sailing around the country every year.

So let’s spare a thought for the sailors, as strong winds continue to make their presence known regularly around parts of South Africa’s coastal region as the winter progresses, with damaging winds and waves in places along the coast.

International mariners and local fishermen alike rely on factors such as ship routeing, meteorological data and weather forecasts to plan safe and efficient routes wherever possible.

The South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) issues wind and wave warnings when winds are expected to be strong enough to cause disruptions or damage, or when waves are expected to be high enough to pose a risk. These warnings are crucial for coastal communities and marine activities.

To look at just two examples, SAWS warned of damaging waves expected south of Durban, Kwa-Zulu-Natal during the second week of June, and again during the weekend of Friday 25 and Saturday 26 July, that could cause disruptions and navigational difficulties. We’re still in the middle of winter, so there’s no doubt that we can expect further warnings around damaging winds and waves coming through in due course.

Here at Vox Weather, we are proud to play our role in sharing information to help keep sailors informed, to assist with their safety, and the safekeeping of their important economic cargoes, as much as possible.

Rain, Rain, Go Away… the G20 Leaders’ Summit is Almost Here!

Celebrating Summer 2025

Decoding the Weather and Following Her Dream

Winds of Change – It’s a Sign!

Extra! Extra! Read All About It! Total Lunar Eclipse 7 September 2025

How SA’s winter weather patterns compare to our neighbours

Snow possible in central SA and Gauteng this week

Forecaster warned that snow is possible in central SA and Gauteng this week. Here is the latest weather update.

Snow a possibility for Gauteng as cold weather grips SA

The Effect of Climate Change on South Africa’s Winter Weather Patterns

Thinking of the Mariners: Strong winds and rough waves around SA’s coastline