Seasonal Outlook: Winter 2026 Has Arrived After a Record-Breaking May

May 2026 will always be remembered as being one of the most remarkable weather months in recent Western Cape and Southern Cape history. Vox Weather Meteorologist Michelle du Plessis shares the seasonal outlook for winter 2026.

Please note: All graphs and images are taken from the latest Langtermyn Landbou-Weervoorspelling, and you can also view the current seasonal Landbou show here.

The percentage of normal rainfall for May 2026 clearly shows just how unusual the month was. Large parts of the southern half of South Africa received above-normal rainfall, but the most extreme values were concentrated over the Southern Cape and parts of the Western Cape, where rainfall exceeded 400%, 600% and even 1,000% of normal in places. This means some areas received several times more rain than they would usually expect during May.

 

This exceptional rainfall was mainly driven by two major weather events. The first was a powerful cut-off low at the beginning of the month, which brought exceptional rainfall to the Southern Cape and Langkloof. Joubertina recorded 220 mm in 24 hours, while one Bokmakierie Holdings weather station in the Krakeelrivier region measured more than 1,000 mm during the event. The flooding around Krakeelrivier was described as some of the worst on record, with experts calling it a one-in-100-year rainfall event.

This system also caused dramatic dam level rises, with several dams recovering rapidly. Kouga Dam overflowed on 7 May, showing just how widespread and intense the rainfall was. Very cold air behind the system also brought widespread snow to parts of the Karoo and higher-lying areas.

The second major event followed shortly afterwards, when two strong cold fronts reached the Western Cape from 10 May. Ceres recorded 333.2 mm of rain in 24 hours on 11 May, breaking its highest daily rainfall record since measurements began in 1955. Ceres normally receives around 80 mm of rain during May, but by the end of the month, more than 500 mm had been recorded. This means the town received more than six times its normal May rainfall.

Runoff from the mountains caused the Breede River to rise rapidly. The flood levels recorded near Swellendam suggest that this was likely one of the largest Breede River floods in more than a century, and possibly the biggest since 1925.

Approaching Brandvlei Dam, the Breede River expanded to more than 1 km wide (above left). At the Diepsak Farm area there was massive damage to the farmlands, with whole orchards still underwater (above right).

Together, these two events defined May 2026: a month of broken rainfall records, historic flooding, rapid dam recovery and widespread snow.

ENSO Outlook

We are currently still in ENSO-neutral conditions, but the latest ENSO probability forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminstration (NOOA), the US government’s official national weather service, is showing a strong signal for El Niño development later this year.

According to the forecast, there is an 82% chance of El Niño conditions developing during May to July, increasing to an almost 100% chance by spring.

The NOAA ENSO strength forecast also shows a notable signal for a stronger event later in the year. For the November 2026 to January 2027 period, it indicates about a 1-in-3 chance of a strong El Niño developing, and another 1-in-3 chance of a very strong El Niño developing. Combined, this suggests roughly a 2-in-3 chance of either a strong or very strong El Niño during that period.

So, while the signal for El Niño is currently very strong, it is important to remember that this is not a direct drought forecast. Local rainfall patterns are also influenced by many other factors.

For now, the key message is to keep a close eye on how the forecast develops over the coming months. Seasonal guidance is useful, but shorter-term forecasts will remain especially important when it comes to planning around rainfall, agriculture and water risks.

Seasonal Outlook: June, July, August (Winter)

The seasonal precipitation outlook for June, July and August shows a broadly similar picture from both the SA Weather Service and the University of Pretoria. Both forecasts indicate enhanced probabilities for above-normal rainfall across large parts of the summer rainfall region during winter, especially over the central and eastern interior. This suggests that parts of the country that are usually drier during winter could still receive some rainfall during this period.

The winter rainfall region, however, does not show the same strong or consistent signal. While some areas may still receive frontal rainfall during the season, the outlook does not point to a clear, widespread above-normal rainfall signal over the south-western Cape.

Overall, the two forecasts support a similar broad message: a wetter-than-usual winter signal over much of the summer rainfall region, with more uncertainty over the winter rainfall region.

Seasonal Outlook: August, September, October (Spring)

When looking at the late winter to early spring seasonal outlook for August, September and October, the two forecasts start to show more noticeable differences.

The SA Weather Service forecast still indicates a wetter signal across large parts of the interior, especially over the central parts of South Africa. However, the University of Pretoria forecast shows a more mixed picture, with indications of drier conditions over parts of the west and east, while some areas along the east coast still show a wetter signal.

This difference between the two forecasts highlights the uncertainty that remains for the late winter and early spring period. This is especially important as El Niño is expected to develop later this year, which could influence rainfall patterns as we move closer to spring and summer.

For now, the key message is that the seasonal signal is not yet fully consistent. It remains important to monitor the forecast closely over the coming months and to use shorter-term forecasts for more detailed planning.

Latest Dam Levels

The impact of the May rainfall was also clearly reflected in dam levels across the Western and Southern Cape.

By 2 June 2026, several major dams had shown dramatic increases compared to the end of April. The Kouga Dam rose from 32.6% to 101.0%, while the Impofu Dam increased from 36.8% to 100.9%. The Garden Route Dam also climbed sharply from 47.2% to 90.0%.

Further west, Theewaterskloof Dam increased from 46.5% to 71.1%, Berg River Dam from 46.2% to 75.8%, and Voëlvlei Dam from 50.0% to 59.7%.

These increases show just how significant the rainfall was during May. While the flooding caused severe damage in many areas, it also brought a major turnaround for several dam systems that had been under pressure earlier in the year.

Will We Have a Super El Niño in 2026/27?

Why it is still too early to make drought predictions for South Africa

After one of the better rainfall seasons so far across parts of South Africa’s summer rainfall areas, a new concern is starting to draw attention: the possibility of a strong, or even ‘Super’, El Niño later in 2026. This has already raised concern among farmers, agricultural businesses, water planners and other weather-sensitive industries. However, says Vox Weather Meteorologist Michelle du Plessis, it is important to approach the topic carefully.

While the chance of El Niño developing later this year is increasing, it is still too early to make direct drought predictions for South Africa. At this stage, the best message is one of awareness and preparation, not panic. We unpack this in the article.

What is El Niño?

El Niño forms part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, commonly known as ENSO. ENSO is a natural climate pattern linked to changes in sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

During El Niño, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean become warmer than normal. This warming can influence global weather patterns by shifting large-scale atmospheric circulation. 

In southern Africa, El Niño is often associated with a greater chance of hotter and drier conditions during the summer rainfall season, especially over the interior summer rainfall regions.

However, El Niño does not affect every country or every season in the same way. It also does not automatically mean that drought will occur.

What are the latest forecasts showing?

According to the latest outlook from the US Federal Agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), ENSO-neutral conditions are currently present, but El Niño is likely to develop during May to July 2026. NOAA gives a 61% chance of El Niño emerging during this period and continuing through at least the end of 2026.

NOAA also indicates a roughly one-in-four chance that the event could become very strong later in the year, but notes that this depends on whether the atmospheric conditions over the equatorial Pacific continue to support further strengthening.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has also highlighted that ENSO-neutral conditions are expected in the short term, while the probability of El Niño increases later in 2026. WMO’s earlier update indicated around a 60% chance of neutral conditions during May to July, with the chance of El Niño rising to around 40% during that same period.

Here at home, the University of Pretoria’s Seasonal Forecast Worx April 2026 update also points towards the possible development of a strong El Niño state towards the end of 2026.

This means there is growing agreement that El Niño may develop later this year, but there is still uncertainty about how strong it will become and how directly it will affect South Africa.

What does ‘Super El Niño’ mean?

The term ‘Super El Niño’ is often used in the media to describe an exceptionally strong El Niño event. In scientific discussions, a very strong El Niño is usually linked to sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region reaching around +2.0°C or more.

However, ‘Super El Niño’ is not always used consistently. It can sound dramatic, and it can create the impression that severe drought is already guaranteed. That is not the case.

A strong El Niño increases the probability of certain climate impacts, but it does not guarantee the same outcome in every country. For South Africa, the strength of El Niño is important, but it is not the only factor that determines rainfall.

Too early to make drought predictions for South Africa

It is still too early to directly link the expected El Niño to a specific drought outcome for South Africa.

One reason is that ENSO forecasts are generally less reliable during the late autumn and winter months. Forecast confidence usually improves from around August and September, when the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere are more clearly coupled and the signal for the coming summer rainfall season becomes stronger.

This is especially important for South Africa, because the main ENSO-related impacts are usually felt during the summer rainfall season, from around October or November through to March. The current winter period is not expected to be significantly influenced by the developing El Niño signal.

For this reason, any strong statements about drought over South Africa should be treated with caution at this stage. It is more responsible to say that the risk of hotter and drier summer conditions may increase if a strong El Niño develops, but it is not yet possible to confirm the timing, severity or regional detail of those impacts.

South Africa’s rainfall is influenced by more than ENSO

Although El Niño is an important climate driver, South Africa’s rainfall is influenced by several other factors as well.

These include the position of high-pressure systems, moisture transport from the tropics and Indian Ocean, cut-off lows, tropical-temperate cloud bands, regional circulation patterns, sea surface temperatures near southern Africa, and shorter-term weather systems.

This means that even during El Niño years, rainfall can still vary significantly from one region to another. Some areas may experience long dry spells, while others may still receive important rainfall events.

It is also important to remember that only the summer rainfall regions of South Africa are typically more directly influenced by ENSO. The winter rainfall region, especially the Western Cape, is not affected in the same way during winter.

What can we learn from past strong El Niño events?

Historically, South Africa has experienced different outcomes during strong El Niño events.

The 1982/83 El Niño was linked to severe agricultural impacts and is remembered as one of the more damaging events for crops. However, the 1997/98 event, although globally one of the strongest El Niño events on record, did not produce the typical widespread hotter and drier summer season over South Africa in the same way.

This shows why we cannot simply say “strong El Niño equals drought”. The relationship is important, but it is not perfect.

El Niño increases the risk of certain conditions, but the final impact depends on how it interacts with other climate drivers during the season.

What could this mean for South Africa if a strong El Niño develops?

If a strong El Niño develops and persists into the 2026/27 summer rainfall season, South Africa’s summer rainfall areas may face an increased risk of warmer and drier conditions compared with normal.

  • For daily life, this could mean a greater chance of heatwaves, higher water demand, increased fire-weather risk in some areas, and pressure on household and municipal water use.
  • For agriculture, the main concern would be the timing and distribution of rainfall during the planting and growing season. Even if seasonal rainfall totals are not extremely low, poor rainfall timing, long dry spells between rainfall events, or very hot conditions during sensitive crop stages can still place crops and livestock under pressure.
  • For weather-sensitive industries such as mining, construction, tourism, logistics and supply chains, a hotter and drier summer could increase operational challenges. These may include heat-related working conditions, dust, water-use pressure, veld fire risk, and possible knock-on effects on agricultural production and food prices.

However, these remain possible risks, not confirmed outcomes.

What should farmers and weather-sensitive industries do now?

The key message is to prepare practically, but not to panic.

Farmers should monitor seasonal updates closely over the next few months, especially from August and September onwards when confidence in the summer outlook should improve. It may also be useful to start reviewing water availability, irrigation planning, planting decisions, fodder reserves, livestock heat-stress plans and financial risk strategies.

At the same time, short-term forecasts remain the most useful tool for immediate decision-making. A possible El Niño later in the year does not replace the need to monitor weekly rainfall systems, cold fronts, cut-off lows, heatwaves and severe weather warnings.

Is climate change making El Niño worse?

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon. It is not caused by climate change. However, it now occurs in a warmer global climate system.

This means that when a strong El Niño develops, it can add to already elevated global temperatures and increase the likelihood of heat-related extremes in some parts of the world. A strong El Niño in a warmer world can therefore have amplified impacts, especially when it comes to temperature.

For South Africa, this means that if a strong El Niño develops, the heat component may be particularly important to monitor during the 2026/27 summer season.

The key message for South Africa

There is growing evidence that El Niño may develop later in 2026, and there is a possibility that it could become strong. However, it is still too early to confirm a ‘Super El Niño’ or make direct drought predictions for South Africa.

The most responsible message is that the risk of hotter and drier conditions may increase for the summer rainfall areas during the 2026/27 summer season, especially from October or November into March, but this risk still needs to be monitored carefully over the coming months.

 

For now, South Africans should remain informed, follow trusted seasonal updates, and continue to use short-term forecasts for practical day-to-day planning.

A possible strong El Niño is something to watch closely, not something to treat as a guaranteed drought forecast.

An Off-Road Edge as Vox Weather Partners with Subaru

A sturdy and stylish Subaru Crosstrek is helping Vox Weather meteorologists Annette Botha and Michelle du Plessis reach remote and rugged locations more safely for storm and snow chasing, as well as their always-exciting ‘Beyond the Forecast’ episodes.

Vox Weather has entered into a partnership with Subaru Southern Africa, placing an impressive off-road-ready Subaru Crosstrek at the disposal of Annette and Michelle. The vehicle proudly carries Vox Weather branding on its doors, making it easily recognisable on the road and in Vox Weather content.

The partnership expands the team’s ability to report from remote and challenging locations, while improving safety for the presenters and crew members.

For Vox Weather, the car is more than just a marketing asset. It is a practical tool that changes what the team can do on location. Annette and Michelle enjoy filming outside broadcasts, storm and snow chases, and feature pieces for Vox Weather’s ‘Beyond the Forecast’ series. These segments can take the crew over gravel tracks, steep terrain and into adverse weather.

“Our horizon has expanded when it comes to storm and snow chasing, or any video concept that we want to shoot outside, because we now have the right vehicle to take us there,” says Annette.

She outlines the kinds of assignments the team can now tackle with greater confidence: “Michelle and I can go storm chasing and snow chasing during cold fronts in Cape Town this winter, and drive much more easily on gravel roads for our ‘Beyond the Forecast’ episodes,” she explains.

“We feel so safe in the Subaru Crosstrek. It allows us to embrace opportunities that previously would have required more caution, or might even have been beyond our scope. We are excited to think in ways that are a little more extreme and adventurous, because there is so much more that we can do now with the right vehicle to take us there.”

Subaru builds vehicles designed to give drivers confidence in all weather conditions, and the collaboration with Vox Weather is a great platform to show people the value of its technology, particularly the Symmetrical All-Wheel Drive system.

Annette adds: “The vehicle’s on-board modes also make it versatile. Drivers can choose settings tailored for light snow and gravel, or for mud and more extreme snowy conditions, allowing the car to adapt quickly to changing terrain without compromising on performance.”

She says Vox Weather will feature the vehicle in regular content, including short social reels, on-location intros and select ‘Beyond the Forecast’ episodes.

“We are so grateful to Subaru for trusting us with this Subaru Crosstrek and giving us the chance to take on more extreme and exciting adventures. This is more than just a vehicle. It is a partnership built for the road, for the elements and for the journey ahead, because when the weather changes, we move with it.

“Michelle and I feel confident in this car and safe, not to mention stylish, with the stunning Vox Weather branding combined with the vehicle’s Sand Dune Pearl colour. We look forward to driving in the rugged areas of our beautiful Western Cape. Don’t forget to hoot and wave if you see us!”

Nature Unleashed as the Western and Eastern Cape Experience Severe Winter Weather

We saw eight weather warnings in place recently as a second, and stronger, cold front moved over the south-western Cape in quick succession, bringing damaging winds and disruptive rain. Vox Weather Meteorologist Michelle du Plessis shares a short overview.

(Cover image courtesy of SABC News: Facebook)

Two consecutive cold fronts moved across the south-western parts of South Africa this week (10 to 15 May), bringing widespread heavy rain, damaging winds and major disruptions across parts of the Western Cape.

The first cold front moved through on Sunday the 10th of May, followed by a second and stronger system on Monday the 11th. This second front brought the most intense weather, with heavy rainfall continuing into Tuesday the 12th across several areas.

Widespread Flooding and Disruptions

Rainfall totals were particularly significant across the western and south-western parts of the province. Several public reports indicate very high accumulations, including around 213 mm near Piketberg by Tuesday morning, with rain still continuing at the time of the report.

In the Koue Bokkeveld, between Ceres and the Cederberg, some areas reportedly received up to around 280 mm, with ongoing rain, road closures, power outages, limited internet access and cellphone tower disruptions being reported.

Some areas may even have received more than 300 mm, particularly some of the mountainous regions.

These very high totals led to widespread flooding and disruptions, with several schools in the Western Cape closed on Tuesday due to the severe weather conditions.

Damaging Winds

The heavy rain was not the only major concern. Damaging winds were also a significant component of this system.

Official 24-hour wind gust observations for Tuesday showed gusts of 117 km/h at Beaufort West and Ladismith, 113 km/h at Ngqura, 109 km/h at Cape Point, 100 km/h at Sutherland, 98 km/h at Dohne, 94 km/h at Hermanus, 93 km/h at Laingsburg, and 91 km/h at both Cape Town AWS and Uitenhage.

Some private weather station reports indicated even stronger gusts, including a reported maximum wind gust of 142 km/h near Piketberg.

These strong winds contributed to widespread damage, including power outages, fallen trees, infrastructure damage and transport disruptions. The closure of the N1 towards Cape Town near Worcester was particularly significant, as it affected a major transport route into the city and likely disrupted the movement of goods and services. A number of flights from the Cape Town and George airports were also affected.

Nature Unleashed

This event highlights the tremendous potential impact of winter cold fronts when multiple systems move through in quick succession. The combination of saturated ground, persistent rainfall, strong winds and rough conditions can quickly lead to flooding, infrastructure damage, travel delays and power supply challenges.

Although strong cold fronts are a normal part of the Western Cape winter rainfall season, this event was particularly significant because of the intensity of the second front, the high rainfall totals over a short period, and the widespread damaging winds.

Conditions are expected to improve from Wednesday as the second cold front moves away from the province. The latest forecast currently indicates dry conditions across most regions of the Western Cape for the rest of the week.

‘Season of Mist and Mellow Fruitfulness’: Autumn 2026 Forecast

With summer now firmly behind us, what lies ahead for South Africa during Autumn 2026?

Vox Weather Meteorologist Michelle du Plessis first looks back at the sometimes-extreme weather in February, and unpacks what we can expect for the beginning of the forthcoming cooler months.

(Featured image: View of Emmarentia Dam, Johannesburg, during Autumn)

South Africa experienced an extraordinary February 2026, marked by record rainfall in parts of the country, severe thunderstorms, intense heat, and stark regional contrasts in rainfall patterns. While the western and southern parts of the country received widespread above-normal rainfall, the north-eastern regions experienced a warmer and drier end to the summer season.

As Autumn begins to settle across the country, attention is now turning to the seasonal outlook and the possible influence of a developing El Niño later in the year.

February 2026: Record Rainfall and Severe Weather

February brought much-needed rainfall to large parts of the drought-stricken Cape provinces. Rainfall anomaly maps clearly show the regional contrast across the country: the north-eastern interior experienced a hotter and drier end to summer, while the Western and Eastern Cape saw significantly wetter conditions.

Not only did above-normal rainfall occur, but several rainfall records were also broken during the month. These events were largely driven by at least three strong cut-off low pressure systems that moved across the country, producing widespread rainfall and severe thunderstorms.

One notable event occurred in Kakamas, where more than 100 mm of rain fell on 22 February. Later in the month, Grahamstown also recorded exceptional rainfall when its February 24-hour rainfall record was broken. More than 75 mm fell within only a few hours on 24 February, exceeding the previous record by more than 33 mm.

Across social media, numerous photographs and videos captured the dramatic turnaround in water availability, with farmers and residents expressing gratitude for the long-awaited rainfall.

In Ladismith, the situation at the Tierkloof Dam highlighted the dramatic impact of the rainfall. On 2 February 2026, the dam was so depleted that the local municipality had to close the outlet valves to protect infrastructure. After heavy rainfall on 9 February, however, the dam began overflowing within just a week — an extraordinary turnaround.

Rivers also responded rapidly to the rainfall. By 11 February, the Vis River was flowing strongly again, while in George the well-known Pepsi Pools experienced strong runoff following the rains.

Unfortunately, the severe weather also brought destructive storms. Hailstorms in the Southern Cape caused significant damage to fruit farms in the Langkloof region, highlighting the dual nature of intense summer rainfall events.

February was not only wet in parts of the country, but also exceptionally hot. Above-normal temperatures were recorded across the eastern and southern regions.

Cape Town once again broke its maximum temperature record when temperatures soared to 44°C on 16 February.

Elsewhere in the country, farmers in the Free State welcomed the rainfall ahead of the harvest season, with crops appearing particularly healthy this year. The Vaal Dam also remains exceptionally full, and there is even the possibility that it could remain at or near full capacity for an entire year — something that may not have occurred in the past two decades, and possibly even longer.

Despite these positive developments in parts of the country, dam levels in the Cape provinces remain a concern.

Dam levels in the Western and Southern Cape are currently significantly lower than they were at the same time last year. The Kouga Dam currently stands at only 39% capacity compared to 84% a year ago, while the Theewaterskloof Dam is approximately 50% full compared to 70% at the same time last year. Across the Western Cape as a whole, the average dam level currently sits at around 49.7%, compared to 65.8% a year ago.

Autumn Arrives with the First Cold Front

Autumn has also made an early appearance across parts of the country. The first strong cold front of the season swept across South Africa at the start of March, bringing much cooler conditions. On the morning of 2 March, light frost was recorded in parts of the interior, with temperatures in Sutherland dropping to near and even below freezing.

However, it is important to note that an early frost or early cold conditions do not necessarily mean that the coming winter will be colder or wetter. For this reason, forecasts currently focus primarily on the Autumn outlook rather than drawing conclusions about the winter season.

ENSO Outlook and the Possibility of El Niño

Current projections indicate that the ENSO system is likely to return to a neutral state during Autumn. Some models suggest that conditions could then shift relatively quickly toward an El Niño phase later in the year, potentially developing toward the end of winter and continuing into summer.

If this scenario materialises, it could have implications for rainfall patterns during the next summer rainfall season. However, it is still too early to determine the exact impacts of a potential El Niño event.

Interestingly, if El Niño development is delayed until later in the year, it could even allow for favourable spring rainfall conditions before the event fully establishes itself.

Seasonal Outlook and Model Uncertainty

At present, both the South African Weather Service (SAWS) and the University of Pretoria’s seasonal forecasting models indicate the possibility of above-normal rainfall over parts of the interior during the next three months. The signal is particularly strong over sections of the Eastern Cape.

However, both modelling systems also suggest the potential for drier-than-normal conditions over the western parts of the Western Cape and along the West Coast.

It is important to keep in mind that the predictive skill of rainfall forecasts is currently weaker for the western regions of the country, which means the outlook for these areas remains more uncertain.

Seasonal temperature forecasts for March, April and May also indicate a strong likelihood of warmer-than-normal conditions across much of the country. When combined with berg wind conditions, this could increase the risk of veld fires in some areas.

Looking further ahead toward winter, the various climate models do not currently agree on a clear rainfall signal. As a result, no firm conclusions should be drawn yet regarding the coming winter rainfall season.

This uncertainty is worth highlighting because last year both the SAWS and University of Pretoria models predicted below-normal rainfall for the winter rainfall region. In reality, the outcome differed somewhat. The far western parts of the country experienced more rainfall than predicted, while the models were more accurate over the central Karoo and parts of the Southern Cape where below-normal rainfall did occur.

 

A Season of Change

Across the country, the subtle signs of seasonal change are becoming more noticeable. Leaves are beginning to turn colour, the sun sets earlier in the evenings, and many people have already felt the first bite of cooler air in the mornings.

Autumn in South Africa brings mild days, cool nights and frequent morning mist. It’s the peak season for harvesting grapes as well as other fruit, with vineyards and orchards changing colour and offering scenic views. Elsewhere we find kilometres and kilometres of cosmos flowers in bloom.

And so Autumn remains one of the most pleasant seasons in South Africa, with moderate and comfortable weather across much of the country. Yet for many in the Cape provinces, the hope remains the same: that this Autumn will bring the rainfall needed to replenish reservoirs and provide relief ahead of the winter months.

Autumn turns up the heat: Here’s what’s behind the Cape’s blistering weather

As reported on EWN – Eye Witness News: Vox Weather meteorologist Michelle du Plessis confirmed that these are above normal temperatures.

Parts of the Northern and Western Cape have been warned to brace for an early autumn heatwave this week.

Temperatures are expected to reach 46°C in some places, with the hottest conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Full Story

Vox Weather Viewer Numbers Continue to Climb Across Multiple Technology Platforms  

Vox Weather puts the ‘we’ back into weather, assisting both individuals and businesses

As South Africa grappled recently with the extreme weather across the country this summer, its citizens were more invested than ever in following daily weather forecasts. Local viewers – and even some in neighbouring SADC countries – have been following the solid expertise and skilled presentation of Vox Weather’s popular Meteorologists, Annette Botha and Michelle du Plessis, in rapidly increasing numbers. Vox Weather is conveniently presented on multiple platforms including its home web page as well as Facebook, YouTube, X, Instagram, WhatsApp, TikTok and LinkedIn.

Vox Weather was launched and managed by telecommunications and IT services provider Vox some four and a half years ago, in late 2021. Its rapidly climbing follower numbers are a testimony to this daily presenter-led weather update, which provides facts and scientific forecasting with warmth and style.

We take a closer look at how Vox Weather has become another successful subsidiary of Vox, and the important role that personal weather forecasts play in citizens’ lives, as well as facilitating strong businesses and regional economies.

Vox Weather also offers a partnership with agricultural media Landbou.com, providing important weather information to its readers in the agricultural sector, as well as Momentum Insure within the insurance arena. Vox Weather developed a Severe Storm Risk Map specifically for its collaboration with Momentum Insure, which aligns well with the severe storm season South Africa is currently experiencing.

Vox Weather: ‘We are Go for Growth’

Vox Weather achieved its first significant milestone when it grew to 50,000 followers within its first six months of launching. After this, the platform took just another year to double up to 100,000 dedicated followers, with a reach of close to two million people per month, on average, in its first 18 months. Last year, Vox Weather crossed the half-a-million viewers mark – truly impressive!

Vox believes that there are multiple reasons for this pleasing growth. Its presenters are both highly qualified scientists, bringing enormous credibility to their weather presentations, and preparing the visuals themselves from the raw data. In addition, they are personable and friendly, with a truly empathetic understanding of how important the weather is in people’s daily lives.

The animated graphics are professional, modern, visually pleasing and easy to understand. Finally, Vox Weather makes excellent use of multiple social media platforms to actively market its content.

Vox Weather’s social media numbers have recently achieved some additional milestones.

Vox Weather started 2026 on a strong note, with a reach of 7.3 million and 12.9 million views. Having previously reached 500,000, as outlined, Vox Weather’s audience is now sitting at 594 647, gaining 15 300 followers in January. A behaviour measurement tool on WhatsApp shows that audiences are sharing the content more than simply reacting to it, which is an additional win.

It couldn’t be easier to access Vox Weather reports via the platform of your choice, whether you are in the office with your laptop, or on the go and looking at your mobile phone. This has been particularly useful for viewers this past summer as multiple weather events and patterns across the country continued to surprise the country with their intensity.

Vox is very pleased that the forecasts brought by Vox Weather are able to assist people and their personal safety, at the individual level, by giving them the knowledge to potentially avoid dangerous situations involving hailstones, high UV indexes, flooded areas and high winds, to name but a few.

The Importance of Weather Commentary

Locally, every province in South Africa has recently had its own collection of stories to tell about recent weather patterns. Vox Weather’s Meteorologists were ever ready to unpack the facts, present forecasts and communicate warnings when the weather was heading once more into extreme territory.

Annette explains: “Weather forecasting models are designed to predict various weather phenomena such as sunshine, rain, snow, wind and severe storms like thunderstorms and hurricanes. Different models and data are used for different planning needs, including forecasts for aviation, marine activities and fire hazards.”

She notes that prediction timeframes include short-range (hours to days); medium-range (three to seven days); and long-range forecasts (eight to 14 days predictions), and that longer seasonal forecasts also have an important role to play in the planning aspects of certain industries.

Annette continues: “We have seen residents in parts of the Eastern Cape battling with the looming threat of a lack of water supply due to drought conditions, while the Free State experienced massive hailstorms and even tornadoes. In contrast, the Western Cape battled extreme dryness and wildfires, and in the north, residents of Mpumalanga and Limpopo braved deadly floods, including in the Kruger National Park.”

Michelle adds: “When we think about the recent floods in the Kruger National Park, we know that rivers don’t rise slowly. Rain that falls hundreds of kilometres away can rush downstream, filling river channels in hours. That’s why flood warnings matter, and why you should never underestimate moving water. Nature is beautiful – but it’s also incredibly strong, as we have seen all summer long!

“All these wide-ranging weather-related issues have had a potential impact on people’s lives, with awareness of forecasts being even more important for both individuals and businesses alike during times of extreme weather events.”

Weather’s Economic Impacts

Seasonal and long-range forecasts are important for industries with high capital investment and/or long production cycles, as well as those that can be highly sensitive to climate, weather or economic trends. Key industries that rely on longer-term forecasts include agriculture, of course, as well as transportation and logistics, construction and real estate, and insurance and reinsurance, to name but a few.

Vox believes that during challenging economic times, it’s even more important for companies and industries to have an awareness of potentially threatening weather conditions that could have an impact on their operations, and here again Vox Weather is able to assist businesses as well as individuals.

Overall, Vox Weather has seen a strong start to 2026, with a healthy reach and constant engagement. As the parent company, Vox is proud to have played a role in bringing the dynamic duo of Annette and Michelle to South Africa’s social media reach across multiple technology platforms, and looks forward to its continued growth throughout the rest of the year.

Seasonal Outlook: A Stormy Start to 2026 with a Sharp East–West Contrast

When you look at recent weather maps of South Africa, you could be forgiven for thinking that we are living in two different countries. Vox Weather Meteorologist Michelle du Plessis shares the first seasonal outlook of 2026.

Please note: All graphs and images are taken from the latest Langtermyn Landbou-Weervoorspelling, and the text on the visuals is in Afrikaans. You can also view the Landbou show here.

The first agricultural weather outlook of 2026 begins with a country already deeply shaped by summer weather extremes. While large parts of South Africa experienced intense thunderstorms, flooding and high humidity in December, the western regions faced the opposite: extreme heat, dryness and severe fire danger.

The key question now is whether December was just a noisy outlier, or whether it signals a broader pattern for the rest of summer and early autumn.

December 2025: A month of extremes

According to the CPC percent-of-normal rainfall map for December 2025 (based on the 1979–2024 climate period), a classic summer contrast emerged across the country.

The northern, central and eastern regions recorded above-normal rainfall, while the south-western and western areas — particularly the Western Cape, southern Cape and parts of the Northern Cape — were much drier than normal.

Although the Western Cape normally receives most of its rainfall in winter, 2025 was exceptionally dry. It now ranks among the three driest years of the past four decades for the province.

Severe convective storms in the north and east

The above-normal rainfall across the summer-rainfall region was driven by powerful cumulonimbus thunderstorms. These towering cloud systems are responsible for lightning, hail, intense downpours and flash flooding.

Large parts of the northern and eastern provinces saw repeated thunderstorm outbreaks. A particularly shocking event occurred in the Majaneng area near Hammanskraal, where reports indicated that around 40 people were struck by lightning around 3 January.

Several storms also produced large hail, causing localised agricultural and property damage. Flooding was widespread in areas where storms repeatedly tracked over the same catchments.

In the Lowveld, impacts became severe. On 3 December, a vehicle carrying eight people was swept away at the Komatipoort low-water bridge by the swollen Nkomazi River, highlighting how deadly summer river crossings can become.

On New Year’s Day, two tornadoes were confirmed in Mpumalanga, near Middelburg and Carolina, causing damage to buildings and infrastructure.

Extreme fire season in the west

While storms dominated the east, the western parts of the country endured heat, strong winds and very little meaningful rainfall. This combination triggered one of the most severe fire seasons in years.

These fires occurred while the southern Cape was already under severe water stress. Knysna entered Level 4 water restrictions, with only days of usable water left in the Akkerkloof Dam. Rainfall records show that 2025 was the driest year in over 40 years for the area, pushing the town dangerously close to so-called Day Zero.

Disaster management confirmed that at least 10 major wildfires burned over a single intense week, destroying approximately 90,000 hectares and damaging dozens of structures.

What ENSO is telling us

The latest ENSO indicators continue to show La Niña conditions persisting through the rest of summer. These are expected to weaken into neutral conditions during autumn, while the probability of El Niño increases toward late winter and early spring.

For agriculture, this suggests:

  • Above-normal rainfall risks continue in the east during late summer
  • More variable conditions into autumn
  • A growing risk of warmer and drier conditions later in the year as El Niño develops

Water resources under pressure

The Western Cape’s dam levels currently average 66.3%, down sharply from 86.5% at the same time last year. This significant drop highlights how vulnerable the region already is before the winter rainfall season even begins.

In the Eastern Cape, dam levels also remain below last year’s levels, averaging 75.4% compared to 81.3% a year ago. Although the Eastern Cape forms part of South Africa’s year-round rainfall zone, this does not mean rainfall is evenly distributed. Over recent months, most of the rain has fallen further north and east, with major systems missing much of the southern and eastern Cape. This explains why, despite its climate, the region is still under water pressure.

What this means for the months ahead

December was not an isolated event. It reflects a broader climate pattern of:

  • Wet, storm-prone conditions in the east
  • Hot, dry and fire-prone conditions in the west
  • The seasonal outlook suggests this contrast is likely to persist through late summer and early autumn.

For farmers, this means that in the east and Lowveld, there is continued risk of flooding, crop disease and soil erosion; while in the west, there will be ongoing pressure on water resources, fire management and drought planning.

Seasonal models cannot predict individual storms, but they do provide reliable guidance on overall trends. And the trend for early 2026 is already clear:
A wet east, a dry west, and significant agricultural challenges across both.