Winter in South Africa runs officially from the beginning of June to the end of August – that is, from a meteorologist’s point of view. So even if we get icy weather in May, we’re still only ‘officially’ in Autumn! Meteorological seasons are based on calendar months and average annual temperature cycles, making them more consistent for record-keeping and climate analysis.

And so, as we move towards mid-July and the halfway mark of winter, Vox Weather Meteorologist Michelle du Plessis gives us an update on winter so far, and what the coming months might bring.

June Rainfall and Temperature Patterns

June rainfall anomalies show that some seasonal models correctly picked up on the drier start to winter over the far west. However, June was not dry everywhere. More than one cut-off low system brought above-normal rainfall to parts of the summer rainfall region and the Southern Cape. Southern Namibia also stood out, with some areas receiving up to six times their normal monthly rainfall.

Although it may have felt cold at times, June was surprisingly warm overall. Across large parts of South Africa, both morning and daytime temperatures were above normal. Provincial temperature analysis shows that the Free State, North West, Northern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal recorded their warmest average June temperatures since 1979, and possibly their warmest June on record.

El Niño Is Here

El Niño is currently one of the biggest talking points in weather and agriculture. But it is important to remember that El Niño is not something that will suddenly ‘hit’ South Africa – it has already started developing over the Pacific Ocean.

We are currently in weak El Niño conditions, meaning sea surface temperatures over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean are warmer than normal. El Niño is expected to continue through winter and spring, with an 81% chance of developing into a very strong event during October to December 2026. This would rank it among the largest El Niño events in the historical record dating back to 1950.

A very strong, or so-called ‘super’ El Niño, usually refers to an event where sea surface temperatures across large parts of the central and eastern Pacific remain more than 2°C above normal for an extended period.

Does A Strong El Niño Always Mean Drought?

No. South Africa has experienced strong El Niño events before, and they have not all produced the same outcome. During strong El Niño events in the 1980s and 1990s, many areas did experience drier-than-normal conditions, especially over the summer rainfall region. However, there were also parts of the country that still received normal or even above-normal rainfall, including parts of North West and the Free State during the 1997/1998 summer.

The major exception was 2015/2016. That was one of the strongest El Niño events on record and contributed to one of the worst droughts in modern South African history.

The key message is this: a strong El Niño does not guarantee drought. It increases the risk of drier-than-normal conditions, especially over the summer rainfall region.

A Better Starting Point Than 2015/2016

There is also some good news. Many dams are currently in a healthy state, and soil moisture looks better over large parts of the country than it did before the 2015/2016 drought.

The Vaal Dam is a good example. Since 2004, there have been 11 years where the Vaal Dam started June above 90% full, similar to this year. In all 11 of those years, the dam remained above 50% for the following nine months. Five of those years were El Niño seasons, including 2018 and 2023.

This does not mean we can relax, but it does give South Africa a stronger starting point if the coming summer does turn warmer and drier.

Seasonal Outlook: Winter Into Spring

Looking at the rest of winter and the start of spring, both the SA Weather Service and University of Pretoria forecasts agree broadly on one thing: the far west is likely to remain drier than normal.

There are still indications of above-normal rainfall over parts of the interior, especially where cut-off lows or upper-air low-pressure systems may develop. This is a pattern we started seeing in June already, with weaker cold fronts over the Western Cape and more active upper-air systems over the interior.

By late winter and early spring, the models begin to differ more noticeably. The SA Weather Service shows a possible wetter-than-normal signal over parts of the interior, while the University of Pretoria forecast is more mixed and even shows a drier signal in some areas.

This difference highlights the uncertainty that still remains. The atmosphere has not yet fully decided how it will respond to the developing El Niño.

Summer Outlook: Heat May Be the Bigger Risk

While below-normal rainfall remains an important risk, the biggest concern this summer may not only be drought, but extreme heat.

Most seasonal forecasts agree that South Africa can expect warmer-than-normal conditions from spring. This increases the chance of more frequent, longer and more intense heatwaves during the coming summer.

Higher temperatures also mean higher evaporation, increased water demand for crops and livestock, and greater pressure on soil moisture. When thunderstorms do develop, the extra heat and moisture can also help fuel more intense, isolated storms. So even in a season with a drier overall signal, heavy downpours, hail and localised flooding can still occur.

What Should Farmers and the Public Take from This?

Do not rely on one seasonal forecast alone. Seasonal forecasts give us an indication of the most likely scenario, but they are not exact predictions of what will happen on every farm.
Plan for a warmer-than-normal summer. This is currently the clearest signal across most climate models. Higher temperatures can increase water demand and heat stress for both crops and livestock.
Prepare for both extremes. A strong El Niño increases the risk of a drier summer, but it does not mean there will be no rain or storms. When the right conditions develop, thunderstorms can still become severe.
The good news is that there is still time. El Niño develops over months, not days. Regular monitoring, good planning and the use of short-term forecasts remain the best ways to manage risk.

We publish a new seasonal outlook every month on Landbou.com. Keep monitoring the latest forecasts, share this information with other farmers, family and friends, and use the time now to prepare for what the summer may bring.

Why it is still too early to make drought predictions for South Africa

After one of the better rainfall seasons so far across parts of South Africa’s summer rainfall areas, a new concern is starting to draw attention: the possibility of a strong, or even ‘Super’, El Niño later in 2026. This has already raised concern among farmers, agricultural businesses, water planners and other weather-sensitive industries. However, says Vox Weather Meteorologist Michelle du Plessis, it is important to approach the topic carefully.

While the chance of El Niño developing later this year is increasing, it is still too early to make direct drought predictions for South Africa. At this stage, the best message is one of awareness and preparation, not panic. We unpack this in the article.

What is El Niño?

El Niño forms part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, commonly known as ENSO. ENSO is a natural climate pattern linked to changes in sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

During El Niño, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean become warmer than normal. This warming can influence global weather patterns by shifting large-scale atmospheric circulation.

In southern Africa, El Niño is often associated with a greater chance of hotter and drier conditions during the summer rainfall season, especially over the interior summer rainfall regions.

However, El Niño does not affect every country or every season in the same way. It also does not automatically mean that drought will occur.

What are the latest forecasts showing?

According to the latest outlook from the US Federal Agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), ENSO-neutral conditions are currently present, but El Niño is likely to develop during May to July 2026. NOAA gives a 61% chance of El Niño emerging during this period and continuing through at least the end of 2026.

NOAA also indicates a roughly one-in-four chance that the event could become very strong later in the year, but notes that this depends on whether the atmospheric conditions over the equatorial Pacific continue to support further strengthening.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has also highlighted that ENSO-neutral conditions are expected in the short term, while the probability of El Niño increases later in 2026. WMO’s earlier update indicated around a 60% chance of neutral conditions during May to July, with the chance of El Niño rising to around 40% during that same period.

Here at home, the University of Pretoria’s Seasonal Forecast Worx April 2026 update also points towards the possible development of a strong El Niño state towards the end of 2026.

This means there is growing agreement that El Niño may develop later this year, but there is still uncertainty about how strong it will become and how directly it will affect South Africa.

What does ‘Super El Niño’ mean?

The term ‘Super El Niño’ is often used in the media to describe an exceptionally strong El Niño event. In scientific discussions, a very strong El Niño is usually linked to sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region reaching around +2.0°C or more.

However, ‘Super El Niño’ is not always used consistently. It can sound dramatic, and it can create the impression that severe drought is already guaranteed. That is not the case.

A strong El Niño increases the probability of certain climate impacts, but it does not guarantee the same outcome in every country. For South Africa, the strength of El Niño is important, but it is not the only factor that determines rainfall.

Too early to make drought predictions for South Africa

It is still too early to directly link the expected El Niño to a specific drought outcome for South Africa.

One reason is that ENSO forecasts are generally less reliable during the late autumn and winter months. Forecast confidence usually improves from around August and September, when the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere are more clearly coupled and the signal for the coming summer rainfall season becomes stronger.

This is especially important for South Africa, because the main ENSO-related impacts are usually felt during the summer rainfall season, from around October or November through to March. The current winter period is not expected to be significantly influenced by the developing El Niño signal.

For this reason, any strong statements about drought over South Africa should be treated with caution at this stage. It is more responsible to say that the risk of hotter and drier summer conditions may increase if a strong El Niño develops, but it is not yet possible to confirm the timing, severity or regional detail of those impacts.

South Africa’s rainfall is influenced by more than ENSO

Although El Niño is an important climate driver, South Africa’s rainfall is influenced by several other factors as well.

These include the position of high-pressure systems, moisture transport from the tropics and Indian Ocean, cut-off lows, tropical-temperate cloud bands, regional circulation patterns, sea surface temperatures near southern Africa, and shorter-term weather systems.

This means that even during El Niño years, rainfall can still vary significantly from one region to another. Some areas may experience long dry spells, while others may still receive important rainfall events.

It is also important to remember that only the summer rainfall regions of South Africa are typically more directly influenced by ENSO. The winter rainfall region, especially the Western Cape, is not affected in the same way during winter.

What can we learn from past strong El Niño events?

Historically, South Africa has experienced different outcomes during strong El Niño events.

The 1982/83 El Niño was linked to severe agricultural impacts and is remembered as one of the more damaging events for crops. However, the 1997/98 event, although globally one of the strongest El Niño events on record, did not produce the typical widespread hotter and drier summer season over South Africa in the same way.

This shows why we cannot simply say “strong El Niño equals drought”. The relationship is important, but it is not perfect.

El Niño increases the risk of certain conditions, but the final impact depends on how it interacts with other climate drivers during the season.

What could this mean for South Africa if a strong El Niño develops?

If a strong El Niño develops and persists into the 2026/27 summer rainfall season, South Africa’s summer rainfall areas may face an increased risk of warmer and drier conditions compared with normal.

For daily life, this could mean a greater chance of heatwaves, higher water demand, increased fire-weather risk in some areas, and pressure on household and municipal water use.
For agriculture, the main concern would be the timing and distribution of rainfall during the planting and growing season. Even if seasonal rainfall totals are not extremely low, poor rainfall timing, long dry spells between rainfall events, or very hot conditions during sensitive crop stages can still place crops and livestock under pressure.
For weather-sensitive industries such as mining, construction, tourism, logistics and supply chains, a hotter and drier summer could increase operational challenges. These may include heat-related working conditions, dust, water-use pressure, veld fire risk, and possible knock-on effects on agricultural production and food prices.

However, these remain possible risks, not confirmed outcomes.

What should farmers and weather-sensitive industries do now?

The key message is to prepare practically, but not to panic.

Farmers should monitor seasonal updates closely over the next few months, especially from August and September onwards when confidence in the summer outlook should improve. It may also be useful to start reviewing water availability, irrigation planning, planting decisions, fodder reserves, livestock heat-stress plans and financial risk strategies.

At the same time, short-term forecasts remain the most useful tool for immediate decision-making. A possible El Niño later in the year does not replace the need to monitor weekly rainfall systems, cold fronts, cut-off lows, heatwaves and severe weather warnings.

Is climate change making El Niño worse?

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon. It is not caused by climate change. However, it now occurs in a warmer global climate system.

This means that when a strong El Niño develops, it can add to already elevated global temperatures and increase the likelihood of heat-related extremes in some parts of the world. A strong El Niño in a warmer world can therefore have amplified impacts, especially when it comes to temperature.

For South Africa, this means that if a strong El Niño develops, the heat component may be particularly important to monitor during the 2026/27 summer season.

The key message for South Africa

There is growing evidence that El Niño may develop later in 2026, and there is a possibility that it could become strong. However, it is still too early to confirm a ‘Super El Niño’ or make direct drought predictions for South Africa.

The most responsible message is that the risk of hotter and drier conditions may increase for the summer rainfall areas during the 2026/27 summer season, especially from October or November into March, but this risk still needs to be monitored carefully over the coming months.

For now, South Africans should remain informed, follow trusted seasonal updates, and continue to use short-term forecasts for practical day-to-day planning.

A possible strong El Niño is something to watch closely, not something to treat as a guaranteed drought forecast.

Winter 2026 – How Are We Tracking?

Will We Have a Super El Niño in 2026/27?