Spring Outlook 2026

Spring has arrived, bringing with it a new long-term agricultural weather outlook for South Africa. We once again look forward to the new season, as well as taking a quick look back on the winter that is now officially behind us.

Vox Weather Meteorologist Michelle du Plessis tells us more.

While parts of the country have already seen a wetter start to the season at the beginning of September, especially across the central and eastern regions, attention is increasingly turning to the strengthening El Niño and what it could mean for the coming summer.

Before looking ahead, however, it’s worth reflecting on a winter that was exceptionally dry across parts of the west.

A Notably Dry Winter In the West

Large parts of the Northern Cape and western interior experienced an exceptionally dry August, with some areas receiving only around 25% of their normal rainfall for the month, and locally even less.

This is particularly significant for the winter rainfall region, where August still forms an important part of the traditional rainy season.

Further east, the picture was very different. A cut-off low brought widespread rainfall to parts of the country and was also responsible for some of the coldest conditions of the winter, including widespread snowfall.

 

Because August is normally a dry month across much of South Africa’s summer rainfall region, a single significant weather system can have a major impact on monthly rainfall totals.

Looking at winter 2026 as a whole, the strongest dry signal was concentrated across the western parts of the country.

Large areas of the western Northern Cape, including parts of Namaqualand and the West Coast, experienced a very dry season, with some locations recording one of their driest winters on record.

Record-low rainfall was particularly evident across parts of the Northern and Western Cape, with several locations recording either their driest August or driest winter on record.

Winter was also unusually warm

The winter was not only dry in many western areas, but also unusually warm.

Analysis indicates that temperatures were between 2°C and 4°C above normal across large parts of the Northern Cape, as well as portions of the Western Cape, North West, Free State and northern Eastern Cape.

Several locations recorded their warmest August on record, while others experienced their warmest winter on record.

The strongest concentration of record warmth was found across the Northern Cape and western parts of the Western Cape, although records were also observed in parts of the Eastern Cape and Free State.

A Wet and Unsettled Start to September

The first week of September brought a sharp change in conditions, with a strong cut-off low developing over the country.

Cold, wet and windy weather occurred across several provinces, with heavy rainfall over parts of North West, the Northern Cape and Free State.

Rain also occurred across parts of the Karoo, the south coast, Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal and Lesotho, while some rainfall extended as far north as Gauteng, Limpopo and the Highveld.

The heaviest falls fell over the central North West and neighbouring parts of the Northern Cape and Free State, with accumulated rainfall approaching 100 mm in some areas by Sunday evening 06 September, which raised the risk of flooding.

Could September Bring a Wetter Overall Start To Spring?

Seasonal guidance suggests that wetter-than-normal conditions may continue across parts of central and eastern South Africa during the first half of September. Above-normal rainfall is possible over eastern parts of the country during the second week of the month, with the wetter signal continuing across sections of the central and eastern regions into the third week.

By the final week of September,  the pattern becomes more mixed, with below-normal rainfall possible along parts of the south and east coasts, while wetter conditions may occur across Limpopo, North West, the Northern Cape, Eastern Cape and Free State.

It’s important to remember that spring is a transition season. As atmospheric instability increases, thunderstorms can become more intense, bringing not only heavy rain, but also hail and strong wind gusts.

El Niño continues to strengthen

El Niño has strengthened further in recent weeks and is now firmly established. The latest relative Niño 3.4 index stands at around +2.45°C, while seasonal models indicate that further strengthening is possible through spring.

There are even indications that this event could reach exceptionally strong levels.

For South Africa, El Niño is typically associated with an increased risk of warmer and drier conditions across the summer rainfall region, particularly later in the season. However, El Niño does not automatically mean drought.

There can still be periods of significant rainfall, and individual weather systems can bring substantial rain even during an otherwise dry season. (Image: Wikipedia)

Spring rainfall outlook remains uncertain

The latest seasonal forecasts currently provide mixed signals for spring.

The South African Weather Service indicates an increased chance of above-normal rainfall across parts of the Northern Cape, Free State, Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal and Highveld during the September-to-November period.

The University of Pretoria outlook, however, paints a different picture, indicating below-normal rainfall across large parts of the country.

 

Forecast skill for spring rainfall remains relatively weak, meaning confidence in these rainfall projections is still low. For now, considerable uncertainty remains around exactly how the spring rainfall season will unfold.

Seasonal Outlook: Winter 2026 Has Arrived After a Record-Breaking May

May 2026 will always be remembered as being one of the most remarkable weather months in recent Western Cape and Southern Cape history. Vox Weather Meteorologist Michelle du Plessis shares the seasonal outlook for winter 2026.

Please note: All graphs and images are taken from the latest Langtermyn Landbou-Weervoorspelling, and you can also view the current seasonal Landbou show here.

The percentage of normal rainfall for May 2026 clearly shows just how unusual the month was. Large parts of the southern half of South Africa received above-normal rainfall, but the most extreme values were concentrated over the Southern Cape and parts of the Western Cape, where rainfall exceeded 400%, 600% and even 1,000% of normal in places. This means some areas received several times more rain than they would usually expect during May.

 

This exceptional rainfall was mainly driven by two major weather events. The first was a powerful cut-off low at the beginning of the month, which brought exceptional rainfall to the Southern Cape and Langkloof. Joubertina recorded 220 mm in 24 hours, while one Bokmakierie Holdings weather station in the Krakeelrivier region measured more than 1,000 mm during the event. The flooding around Krakeelrivier was described as some of the worst on record, with experts calling it a one-in-100-year rainfall event.

This system also caused dramatic dam level rises, with several dams recovering rapidly. Kouga Dam overflowed on 7 May, showing just how widespread and intense the rainfall was. Very cold air behind the system also brought widespread snow to parts of the Karoo and higher-lying areas.

The second major event followed shortly afterwards, when two strong cold fronts reached the Western Cape from 10 May. Ceres recorded 333.2 mm of rain in 24 hours on 11 May, breaking its highest daily rainfall record since measurements began in 1955. Ceres normally receives around 80 mm of rain during May, but by the end of the month, more than 500 mm had been recorded. This means the town received more than six times its normal May rainfall.

Runoff from the mountains caused the Breede River to rise rapidly. The flood levels recorded near Swellendam suggest that this was likely one of the largest Breede River floods in more than a century, and possibly the biggest since 1925.

Approaching Brandvlei Dam, the Breede River expanded to more than 1 km wide (above left). At the Diepsak Farm area there was massive damage to the farmlands, with whole orchards still underwater (above right).

Together, these two events defined May 2026: a month of broken rainfall records, historic flooding, rapid dam recovery and widespread snow.

ENSO Outlook

We are currently still in ENSO-neutral conditions, but the latest ENSO probability forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminstration (NOOA), the US government’s official national weather service, is showing a strong signal for El Niño development later this year.

According to the forecast, there is an 82% chance of El Niño conditions developing during May to July, increasing to an almost 100% chance by spring.

The NOAA ENSO strength forecast also shows a notable signal for a stronger event later in the year. For the November 2026 to January 2027 period, it indicates about a 1-in-3 chance of a strong El Niño developing, and another 1-in-3 chance of a very strong El Niño developing. Combined, this suggests roughly a 2-in-3 chance of either a strong or very strong El Niño during that period.

So, while the signal for El Niño is currently very strong, it is important to remember that this is not a direct drought forecast. Local rainfall patterns are also influenced by many other factors.

For now, the key message is to keep a close eye on how the forecast develops over the coming months. Seasonal guidance is useful, but shorter-term forecasts will remain especially important when it comes to planning around rainfall, agriculture and water risks.

Seasonal Outlook: June, July, August (Winter)

The seasonal precipitation outlook for June, July and August shows a broadly similar picture from both the SA Weather Service and the University of Pretoria. Both forecasts indicate enhanced probabilities for above-normal rainfall across large parts of the summer rainfall region during winter, especially over the central and eastern interior. This suggests that parts of the country that are usually drier during winter could still receive some rainfall during this period.

The winter rainfall region, however, does not show the same strong or consistent signal. While some areas may still receive frontal rainfall during the season, the outlook does not point to a clear, widespread above-normal rainfall signal over the south-western Cape.

Overall, the two forecasts support a similar broad message: a wetter-than-usual winter signal over much of the summer rainfall region, with more uncertainty over the winter rainfall region.

Seasonal Outlook: August, September, October (Spring)

When looking at the late winter to early spring seasonal outlook for August, September and October, the two forecasts start to show more noticeable differences.

The SA Weather Service forecast still indicates a wetter signal across large parts of the interior, especially over the central parts of South Africa. However, the University of Pretoria forecast shows a more mixed picture, with indications of drier conditions over parts of the west and east, while some areas along the east coast still show a wetter signal.

This difference between the two forecasts highlights the uncertainty that remains for the late winter and early spring period. This is especially important as El Niño is expected to develop later this year, which could influence rainfall patterns as we move closer to spring and summer.

For now, the key message is that the seasonal signal is not yet fully consistent. It remains important to monitor the forecast closely over the coming months and to use shorter-term forecasts for more detailed planning.

Latest Dam Levels

The impact of the May rainfall was also clearly reflected in dam levels across the Western and Southern Cape.

By 2 June 2026, several major dams had shown dramatic increases compared to the end of April. The Kouga Dam rose from 32.6% to 101.0%, while the Impofu Dam increased from 36.8% to 100.9%. The Garden Route Dam also climbed sharply from 47.2% to 90.0%.

Further west, Theewaterskloof Dam increased from 46.5% to 71.1%, Berg River Dam from 46.2% to 75.8%, and Voëlvlei Dam from 50.0% to 59.7%.

These increases show just how significant the rainfall was during May. While the flooding caused severe damage in many areas, it also brought a major turnaround for several dam systems that had been under pressure earlier in the year.