What is happening to SA’s winters and is climate change playing a significant role? Vox Meteorologist Michelle du Plessis tells us more.

Data shows that winter temperatures across southern Africa have been steadily rising since the 1960s, with fewer days of frost and freezing conditions.

According to the NOAA, extreme cold events are now far less common – and when they do happen, they’re generally milder than in the past.

In the Western Cape, where winter rainfall is vital, climate models show that the rainy season is becoming shorter and more variable.

While some winters still bring strong cold fronts and good rainfall, others are marked by long dry spells.

The WMO warns that drought risks are increasing, especially in Mediterranean-type climates like the south-western Cape.

Interestingly, while total rainfall may decrease, when storms do occur, they may be more intense – bringing short bursts of heavy rain rather than steady soaking periods. This is because warmer air holds more moisture, which can lead to more powerful frontal systems when they develop.

Recent studies suggest that mid-latitude frontal systems – the cold fronts that bring winter rain – may grow stronger under climate change. However, this doesn’t mean we’ll get more of them. Instead, we may see fewer, but more intense, winter storms, followed by longer dry periods in between.

What this means for South Africa

In short, South African winters are becoming:

Warmer, with fewer frost days;
More variable, with rain falling in short, intense bursts; and
Less predictable, meaning long-range planning is harder.

Some early snow forecasts recently circulated on social media suggested possible snowfall over parts of Gauteng, North West, the Highveld, and other areas that rarely experience snow during late July. At Vox Weather, we chose not to post about these projections – and here’s why.

Advanced snow forecasts, particularly more than five days ahead, are often subject to significant change. In fact, updated model guidance today NO LONGER indicates snowfall over these north-eastern regions at all.

Our approach as meteorologists to snow forecasting involves more than just looking at model snowfall outputs.

We analyse:

The SYNOPTIC SYSTEM expected (e.g. a cold front or cut-off low);
The availability and timing of PRECIPITATION; and
The FREEZING LEVELS (the altitude at which temperatures are cold enough for snow to form and reach the ground).

These factors must all align for snowfall to be possible. A shift in any of them can lead to significant changes in where snow may fall – or if it occurs at all.

As of the latest forecast, we see:

A cold front expected to move in on Friday 25 July.
A strong ridging high-pressure system to follow, introducing colder air over southern South Africa during the weekend of 26 and 27 July.
Forecast snowfall now largely restricted to the Eastern Cape, Lesotho, the southern Free State, and adjacent high-lying areas.

At Vox Weather, we prefer to wait until we see consistency in multiple forecast runs – usually within a five-day window – before communicating potential snowfall.

This ensures that our updates are as accurate and reliable as possible.

The arrival of snow isn’t an everyday occurrence for most of South Africa.

As we find ourselves back in snow season, we sat down with Vox Meteorologist Michelle du Plessis to give us the lowdown on how snow is formed.

And it turns out that, for snow to fall and reach the ground, three main weather conditions must come together.

Cold air from top to bottom: The air must be below freezing (0 °C) all the way from the clouds to the ground. If there’s a warmer layer in between, the snow will melt and fall as rain or sleet. Ideal snow forms in clouds where temperatures are between -10 °C and -20 °C.

Enough moisture in the air: Cold air alone isn’t enough – you also need moisture so that water vapour can form ice crystals. Dry air, even if freezing, won’t produce snow.

Something to lift the air: Snow usually forms when air is forced to rise, cool, and condense. This can happen with cold fronts, low-pressure systems like cut-off lows, or when air is pushed up over mountains.

Gauteng’s last snowfall: July 2023…

In July 2023, Gauteng experienced rare snowfall – something locals hadn’t seen in over a decade (before 2023 it snowed in 2012 and 1996). While light snow sometimes falls in the province, heavier events like this happen only once every 10 to 20 years. So yes, it was unusual, but not unheard of.

The July 2023 cold snap wasn’t driven by climate change – instead, it was the result of a powerful cold front that swept across the entire country and extended into our neighbouring countries – supported by a steep upper-air trough, pushing icy air far north.

Looking ahead to winter 2025…

We find that the odds of another snowfall in Gauteng remain low. Climate trends suggest snow in the region will become even rarer in future. That said, nature still has surprises.

If the right weather patterns align—such as a strong cold front or cut-off low pressure system – we could see isolated snow again. But it would remain the exception, not the rule.

As Winter 2025 tightens its grip, more and more viewers are tuning in every day to the skilled presentation and deep expertise of Vox Weather’s popular Meteorologists, Annette Botha and Michelle du Plessis.

Vox Weather, which was launched and managed by telecommunications and IT services provider Vox, is now proudly on the peak of reaching 500,000 followers as South Africans across the country rediscover the joys of a daily weather update that’s presented with flair and style.

So it’s “Goodbye app…” and hello to “No matter the weather, we’re in this together!” as we tune into the daily weather news.

The first significant milestone was reached when Vox Weather grew to 50,000 followers within the first six months of launching in late 2021. After this, the platform took just another year to double up to 100,000 dedicated followers, and a reach of close to two million people per month, on average, in its first 18 months. Now, in mid-2025, Vox Weather is on the bridge of crossing the half a million mark – groundbreaking and impressive indeed.

But what is making the Vox Weather channel so successful? There are probably multiple reasons for this, but Vox Social Media Specialist Lynelle Davids, who tracks the Vox Weather statistics regularly, has some ideas.

“For starters,” she says, “it helps that the weather is presented by two living, breathing rays of sunshine… but seriously, there are indeed multiple reasons for the growth. Besides the interesting content – the weather is important to everyone! – the animated graphics are modern and eye catching, but also easy to understand. There is, of course, serious technology behind each graphic that they share.

“Annette and Michelle are both highly qualified scientists, bringing credibility to their weather presentations – they really understand what they are telling the viewers; in fact, they prepare the visuals themselves from the raw data.

And Vox Weather makes excellent use of available social media platforms to actively market its content. This includes sharing different types of information across the channel’s home web page as well as Facebook, YouTube, X, Instagram, WhatsApp and LinkedIn.”

Annette says: “We are so humbled to have achieved this important milestone of 500,000 followers, and appreciate the time and trust our audience has placed in us by regularly tuning in across the various platforms for the latest updates. As we like to say: it’s all about putting the ‘WE’ back into weather!”

Michelle adds: “It’s a joy and an honour to deliver a presenter-led weather report, together with animated graphics. It’s our belief that this truly helps to bring the weather to life with a real personal touch.”

According to Lynelle, there have been some interesting additional milestones achieved lately for Vox Weather’s social media numbers.

“We recently saw an incredible spike in followers on Facebook,” she clarifies, “when Annette and Michelle gained 5,300 new followers in two days! And WhatsApp saw the same spike with 112 new followers in a similar time frame. This represents some of the stepping stones in the overall rise towards the recent milestone of 500,000 followers.”

Vox Weather also offers a partnership with agricultural publications Landbouweekblad and Landbou.com, providing weather information to their readers.

“We look forward to achieving our next milestones,” says Annette. “Each new broadcast and every new follower represents another step toward our mission: empowering South Africans with accurate daily weather updates, as well as a more holistic understanding of weather patterns and their impact on the planet,” she concludes.

Annette and Michelle brave the skies – without an engine

This Vox Weather story goes beyond maps and models to uncover a true-life story that’s shaped by the weather from start to finish – in this case, the fantastic experience of paragliding!

Vox Weather Meteorologists Annette Botha and Michelle Cordier decided to brave the altitude over Cape Town recently and experience the joys of paragliding for themselves. The idea was to go ‘beyond the forecast’ and learn how weather shapes this aerial sport, while also looking at the science behind good flying conditions.

Special thanks to adventure film maker, content creator and paraglider @MattAshwell, who flew with Annette and Michelle while giving commentary and explanations, as well as @SkyrideParagliding school for their first lesson.

Looking to the Skies

“People have been obsessed with the idea of flying for hundreds of thousands of years – and recently it was the turn of Michelle and myself!” says Annette.

“Here at Vox Weather, we thought it would be a fantastic idea to experience paragliding, as well as find out more about the important role of the weather in helping paragliders to get aloft and then stay airborne without the assistance of an engine.”

Michelle adds: “There are multiple stories about people in bygone years who didn’t only dream about flight, but actively attempted to fly by strapping birdlike wings or other devices onto themselves and jumping from towers – usually with very unfortunate results. As we know today, gravity is a force to be reckoned with!

“And so, for people to fly, they needed to find a way to overcome the force of gravity on body mass – in other words, people needed to find a way to create, or use, lift. This is a key concept in the sport of paragliding.”

Let’s go deeper into how Annette and Michelle traded the studio for the skies, and find out how paragliders stay in the air for so long without an engine.

Weather’s Critical Role in Paragliding

After hiking up Lion’s Head in Cape Town to the take-off spot, the ladies first chatted to Matt and discussed what makes paragliding so special, as well as some of the science behind the sport.

“I think paragliding is one of the most weather-dependent sports out there,” says Matt, “and I generally start looking at the forecast two or three days in advance. The wind’s direction and strength are the two most important factors for any paragliding flight.”

Paragliders depend on thermals, which are rising air currents, to stay in the air for longer, without having to glide directly to the ground from their original height because of gravity’s effect.

“Paragliding is a three-dimensional sport,” says Matt. “You’re moving up and down in the atmosphere and the wind strength can change as you’re moving. And so it’s important to make sure that the wind is optimal where you take off and also higher up on your flight path, to make sure you don’t get blown away.

“I advise beginners to make sure that the thermals aren’t too strong on the day that you’re flying, so you don’t find yourself out of your depth with regards to the turbulence that you’re flying through.”

With regards to wind speed, he notes that the paragliders’ flying window is quite limited, at between about five and 25 kilometres per hour.

“Anything stronger, and you can’t fly because it’s too dangerous,” he explains, “and when it’s less, you can’t fly because there’s no lift. Besides the wind’s direction and strength, paragliders also look at the wind gradient, which is the increase in wind as you go higher in the atmosphere.”

And Now for a Spot of Science

Michelle explains: “Thermals, as Matt outlined, are critical to paragliders, allowing them to ride these rising air currents and gain altitude. Thermals form in different areas and at different strengths because the sun heats the ground unevenly. For example, dry fields and rocky hills heat up quickly and create strong thermals, while cooler areas like water and green fields create weak or no thermals.

“Paragliders also use specific graphs to see if flying conditions are good. A ‘Skew-T’ graph shows how temperatures and dew point – the atmospheric temperature below which water droplets begin to condense, and dew can form – change with height. This helps to plot where thermals can form.”

On the day that Annette and Michelle went paragliding, they experienced a weather phenomenon known as an ‘inversion’ (which had been anticipated, as per the forecast) and which prevented all those who were flying that day from going particularly high.

An inversion, in paragliding terms, means that at a certain altitude you find a band of air that is warmer than the air below and above it; this is an inversion.

Annette clarifies: “As seen in the graphics, we find that on a normal day, hot air continues to rise from the Earth, ultimately losing its heat and gradually becoming colder with atmospheric distance. With the creation of an inversion, however, we find a layer of warm air that traps the cooler air below it, preventing thermals from rising. This can limit a paraglider’s altitude and make it harder to stay airborne.”

Clouds often form an inversion for two reasons: firstly, because at an inversion the air mass changes characteristics, which often means that the combination of temperature and moisture is right to bring about the dew point; and secondly because the conditions attract the gathering of dust particles, which are necessary in cloud formation.

Matt adds: “We can clearly see how important weather forecasting is for paragliders, and we have a few specific options that we look at, including Windy and SkySight. Another very good site developed by a local guy is a weather forecasting site named RASP (Regional Atmospheric Soaring Prediction), which is what paragliders can use for very localised climatology in the Western Cape.”

Where Adventure Meets Atmosphere

There’s no doubt in Matt’s mind that paragliding is an addictive sport. He says: “The reason I’m hooked on paragliding is because of your ability to interact with the wind and be so high above the ground – and then of course the sensation of flying. To be able to do it so freely without an engine is just the best feeling ever!”

Annette adds: “We want to give Matt a huge shout-out for sharing his passion with us and showing us the skies from a different perspective – where adventure meets atmosphere!”

Stay tuned for more adventures ‘Beyond the Forecast’, where Vox Weather will explore how the weather shapes adventures across the country.

The Effect of Climate Change on South Africa’s Winter Weather Patterns

A Note on Snow Forecasting at Vox Weather

Snow Patrol!

Half a Million Followers and Climbing!

Beyond the Forecast – the Joys of Paragliding!